DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/20 11:57
Grains Mixed at Midday
Wheat leads at midday, with row crops narrowly mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 85 points lower. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 6 points higher.
Energies are firmer, with crude 0.70 higher. Livestock trade is firmer.
Precious metals are weaker with gold down 3.10.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with trade still just below
the next level of resistance in quiet action with two-sided trade ongoing.
Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and movement, which will continue
for a bit with a wet start to April expected. South America crop progress
should remain uneventful in the near term with Brazil trending drier for
double-crop corn but it remains early. Weekly ethanol production was 1,000
barrels lower on the week with stocks 634,000 higher, with the bigger slowdown
not likely to show up until next week's report. Ethanol futures are slightly
higher. Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The
slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term. On the
May chart support is the 10-day at $3.68 which we bounced from this morning,
with the next level of resistance the 20-day at $3.72 3/8, which we are just
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with trade still working to hold the
$9.00 area with another test of the area this morning before finding buying.
Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Trade news has
been quieter this week with no major reports. South America weather should
maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along
and normal progress in Argentina. Crush margins remain strong overall with meal
still hanging near $310 a ton with support coming back into the market. On the
May chart support is the $9.00 5/8 10-day moving average, with the 20-day at
$9.08 3/8 the next level up, which we remained just below.
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with Kansas City trade leading
after it was reported that Brazil will allow in 750,000 metric tons of U.S.
wheat tariff free. Trade is still focused on easing oversold conditions with
the large fund short remaining in place with planting season coming up for
spring wheat, and weather likely to remain challenging. Export news will be
focused on in the near term with exports potentially slowing from the Black Sea
area. Warm plains weather will pull the crop out of dormancy with generally
good conditions so far. Wheat basis varies widely on product and location. On
the May Kansas City chart, support is the 10-day at $4.35 which we remain just
above, with the 20-day at 4.42 which we tested before falling back.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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